He Weiwen links AI investment boom to faster global trade growth
In an authorized Barron's article republished by TMTPost, China International Trade Society council member He Weiwen argues that booming AI investment and trade in related technology products are driving stronger Chinese and global trade growth, a dynamic he says cannot be explained by industrial overcapacity alone. He cites faster import growth for AI-related IT products and shifting regional balances, including large Chinese surpluses with the US and EU but an approximately balanced overall position with RCEP members. The article also cites WTO trade-outlook figures and regional export data to support its interpretation of AI-related supply chains.
The analysis highlights AI infrastructure spending and related supply chains as a significant factor in global trade patterns and in the debate over China's trade surpluses.
（本文作者为 Barrons巴伦，钛媒体经授权发布）
引言：2026年以来中国进出口的强劲增长，是世界AI及相关技术产品投资勃兴带动全球贸易急剧加速的一部分，不是“产能过剩”叙事方式所能解释。因为增长最猛烈的AI相关IT产品进口比出口增长更快。 AI投资及相关产品贸易的猛增，带来全球贸易新的不平衡。美国虽为全球AI领先，但相关产品制造外包程度高，反而进口增长更快；欧盟AI发展明显落后，因此出口缺乏增长点；亚太是全球AI相关产品供应高地，在本轮世界贸易勃兴中最为突出。与此相应，中国对美欧有巨大顺差，但与RCEP成员贸易基本平衡。
2025年中国货物贸易顺差超万亿美元，美欧对我指责、攻击一浪高过一浪。不久前在佛罗里达举行的G20财长与央行行长会议发表的主席声明，指责中国巨额贸易顺差带来世界经济失衡。2026年前9个月我国贸易增长进一步加快，出口和进口同比分别增长21.3%和27.5%。9月份当月再加快到出口同比增长36.3%，进口增长31.0%；当月贸易顺差达到1335.3亿美元，折合年率1.6万亿美元的空前高峰。这进一步引起美欧恐慌。欧盟声称对话贸易逆差达到每天10亿欧元，已经出台一系列贸易限制，并计划实施更严厉限制。他们指责的共同点，是中国巨额贸易顺差来自产业补贴造成产能过剩。
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