Bernstein estimates OpenAI compute spending could reach $614 billion by 2030
Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler estimated that infrastructure spending tied to OpenAI's disclosed compute agreements could total $614 billion cumulatively through 2030, according to a report relayed by IT之家 citing 智通财经. The estimate is below an earlier $750 billion figure reported by The Wall Street Journal. Bernstein put the related agreements with Oracle, Microsoft and Amazon at roughly $300 billion, $250 billion and $138 billion, respectively, while the CoreWeave agreement has a ceiling of $22.4 billion and does not guarantee revenue. The calculation assumes all identified contracts proceed as planned. Spending would arise progressively as compute facilities come online, with annual spending projected to peak at $184 billion in 2031. Actual spending could be reduced or delayed by construction delays, cancellations or changes in hardware procurement.
The estimate provides a contract-level view of OpenAI's reported compute commitments and highlights their execution risk. Bernstein said large cloud providers face limited contract risk in the short term, while specialized compute providers relying on costly financing and continued leasing demand could face greater pressure if compute supply tightens less than expected.