凯文·凯利2016年AI预言,十年后回顾
AI 总结
科技博客 taylor.town 发表文章,在凯文·凯利《必然》(The Inevitable)出版约十年后,重新摘录并回顾书中与AI相关的几段预言。凯利当年写道,到2026年谷歌的主打产品将不再是搜索而是AI,AI未来可能由两三家通用型云端商业智能构成寡头格局,其形态更像亚马逊云服务那样廉价、可靠、几乎隐形的工业级基础设施;他还认为大部分商业AI仍是狭窄的专用“软件大脑”,而人们可以用对话方式向云端提出任何问题。文章同时指出,凯利没有预见到后来被称为“苦涩教训”的规模化路线,并提到他曾主张AI应像开放网络那样便宜甚至免费。
深度见解
这类回顾有助于检验十年前的宏观判断在今天的AI格局中是否成立,也提醒读者区分事后归因与真正的预测。
Kevin Kelly's The Inevitable articulates a handful of macro technological trends and follows them to their logical conclusions. It's an insightful read -- I highly recommend it.
One decade later, here are some AI-related excerpts from the book:
- "By 2026, Google’s main product will not be search but AI."
- "oligarchy of two or three large, general-purpose cloud-based commercial intelligences"
- "The AI on the horizon looks more like Amazon Web Services"
- "The bulk of AI will be special purpose software brains"
- "in conversational tones, any question at all"
#Kevin Kelly#Google#DeepMind#Amazon Web Services#The Inevitable