The Inevitable
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- Kevin Kelly's 2016 AI predictions, revisited ten years on
A post on the blog taylor.town revisits AI-related excerpts from Kevin Kelly's book The Inevitable roughly a decade after publication. Kelly wrote that by 2026 Google's main product would be AI rather than search, that the field could settle into an oligarchy of two or three general-purpose cloud-based commercial intelligences, and that AI would look less like HAL 9000 and more like Amazon Web Services — cheap, reliable, industrial-grade smartness running behind everything. He also predicted that most commercial AI would remain narrow, special-purpose software brains, and that people would ask the cloud any question in conversational tones. The post notes that Kelly did not foresee what it calls the bitter lesson, and recalls his argument that AI should be cheap or even free like the open web.
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