token价格下跌需求反增：Jevons悖论再现AI市场
The Decoder 报道，a16z 称 AI 市场出现了「教科书式的 Jevons 悖论」：Ornn、Silicon Data 与 Bloomberg 的数据（截至 2026 年 8 月）显示，token 价格持续下跌，而 H100 的租用价格却持平甚至上涨。报道认为，更便宜的 token 释放了智能体、自动化等新应用，使使用量的增长快于单位成本的下降，但人类用量与智能体自身消耗各占多少并不清楚，算力需求也可能被人为放大。整条产业链依赖一个假设——AI 使用量增长足以抵消 token 降价；若需求走平，从芯片、存储到能源与云厂商都会受冲击，美国股市此前就因 OpenAI 年化收入可能低于预期的报道而下挫。
若这一悖论成立，降价未必压低算力需求，反而可能继续支撑 Nvidia 等硬件厂商的营收预期。
Cheaper AI tokens are driving more demand, and that's Jensen Huang's best-case scenario
Matthias Bastian View the LinkedIn Profile of Matthias Bastian
Oct 11, 2026
Jevons' paradox is Jensen's best friend. Data from Ornn, Silicon Data, and Bloomberg (as of August 2026) shows what a16z calls a textbook Jevons paradox in the AI market. Token prices keep dropping, but H100 GPU rental prices hold steady or climb. Cheaper tokens unlock AI agents, automation, and new applications, so volume grows faster than per-unit costs fall. How much demand comes from humans versus the systems themselves isn't clear, since agentic AI burns through tokens at a staggering rate. Compute demand could be artificially inflated, and even modest human usage growth could trigger outsized hardware needs.
