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Cheaper AI tokens are driving more demand — a textbook Jevons paradox

AI summary

The Decoder reports that a16z calls the current AI market a "textbook Jevons paradox": data from Ornn, Silicon Data and Bloomberg (as of August 2026) shows token prices keep falling while H100 GPU rental prices hold steady or even climb. Cheaper tokens unlock agents, automation and new applications, so volume grows faster than per-unit costs fall, though the article notes it is unclear how much demand comes from humans versus agentic systems burning tokens at a staggering rate, and that compute demand could be artificially inflated. The whole chain rests on one assumption — AI usage grows fast enough to offset falling token prices; if demand flattens, chip makers, memory suppliers, energy providers and cloud companies take a hit, and US stocks already dropped on reports that OpenAI's annualized revenue might be lower than previously reported.

In-depth insight

If the paradox holds, cheaper tokens need not shrink compute demand and could keep supporting hardware vendors' revenue expectations.

Cheaper AI tokens are driving more demand, and that's Jensen Huang's best-case scenario

Matthias Bastian View the LinkedIn Profile of Matthias Bastian

Oct 11, 2026

Jevons' paradox is Jensen's best friend. Data from Ornn, Silicon Data, and Bloomberg (as of August 2026) shows what a16z calls a textbook Jevons paradox in the AI market. Token prices keep dropping, but H100 GPU rental prices hold steady or climb. Cheaper tokens unlock AI agents, automation, and new applications, so volume grows faster than per-unit costs fall. How much demand comes from humans versus the systems themselves isn't clear, since agentic AI burns through tokens at a staggering rate. Compute demand could be artificially inflated, and even modest human usage growth could trigger outsized hardware needs.

H100 GPU rental price vs. token price index, with data through August 2026. | Image: via X

#Nvidia#Jensen Huang#H100#a16z#OpenAI#Ornn

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