分析：AI 需年入2.5万亿美元才能回本
TechRadar 报道，Applied Quantum 创始人 Marin Ivezic 的分析认为，当前 AI 基础设施投入要获得回报，需要每年约 2.5 万亿美元的收入，而乐观估计目前 AI 年收入仅为 1500 亿至 2500 亿美元。Ivezic 按每名全职员工 10 万美元成本推算，这相当于需要替代或带来 2.5 亿个全职岗位的产出，而美国非农就业岗位仅约 1.59 亿个。他还提出“50 美分规则”，并把这轮投资与当年电信公司铺设光纤、最终无力收回成本的互联网泡沫相比较。
该分析把 AI 资本开支的回报问题量化，并指出基础设施提供方可能承担主要成本风险。
- AI needs to replace 250 million jobs in order to make a return on the current $2.5 trillion investment
- AI is getting cheaper and more capable, but the underlying hardware is not
- Infrastructure providers for the AI boom could be left holding the bag
Since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, AI developers have entered into a frenzied arms race of hyperscaler data center build outs, silicon development, and huge power grid expansions.
The level of investment made by AI developers is unlike anything that has been seen (or spent) before. But a key question that IT leaders, investors, and enthusiasts keep asking is how will all this investment be paid for?
New analysis by Marin Ivezic, Founder of Applied Quantum, has found that the math really isn’t adding up. In order to justify the colossal investment, AI would need to generate approximately $2.5 trillion in annual revenue. Current estimates aren’t even close.
AI must replace 250 million jobs
Optimistic estimates put AI’s current revenues at between $150 billion and $250 billion per year, which is a multi-trillion shortfall.