Goldman: $1.7T lockup wave meets $1.7T buybacks in 2027
A TMTPost piece cites a Goldman Sachs report dated Oct 9 with two matching numbers: roughly $1.7 trillion of US shares are expected to unlock in 2027, plus about $600 billion of new issuance — potentially the largest net increase in float since 2000 — against an estimated record $1.7 trillion in corporate buybacks, which Goldman reads as valuation pressure rather than an end to the bull market. AI capex cuts both ways, the article argues: AI-related share sales were about 45% of this year's equity issuance, while Q1 buybacks at Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle fell 64% year over year as roughly $700 billion of capex consumed operating cash flow. SpaceX's June listing raised about $86 billion, its largest IPO ever, with Anthropic and OpenAI behind it; the report says Nvidia is in talks to be a cornerstone investor in Anthropic's IPO for up to $10 billion, and that OpenAI reportedly prefers to push its listing to 2027.
If lockups, buyback shifts and index inclusion collide in 2027, the risk may shift from outright selling to high correlation among AI assets.
(本文作者为 文武赵,钛媒体经授权发布)
文 | 文武赵
高盛10月9日的周报里,有两个数字长得一模一样。
第一个是供给。2027年,美国市场预计有约1.7万亿美元的股票解禁,可以自由卖出。再加上全年约6000亿美元的新发行,美股公开流通股的净增量,可能是2000年以来最大的一次。
第二个是需求。高盛预计2027年美国企业的回购总额约1.7万亿美元,创历史新高。加上现金并购,企业端对股票的需求超过2万亿美元。
两个1.7万亿放在一起,供需大致相抵。高盛的结论是:供给增加会给估值带来压力,但不至于终结牛市。
#Goldman Sachs#SpaceX#Anthropic#OpenAI#Nvidia#Nasdaq-100#S&P 500#Amazon#Alphabet#Meta#Microsoft#Oracle