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Story

Goldman: $1.7T lockup wave meets $1.7T buybacks in 2027

AI summary

A TMTPost piece cites a Goldman Sachs report dated Oct 9 with two matching numbers: roughly $1.7 trillion of US shares are expected to unlock in 2027, plus about $600 billion of new issuance — potentially the largest net increase in float since 2000 — against an estimated record $1.7 trillion in corporate buybacks, which Goldman reads as valuation pressure rather than an end to the bull market. AI capex cuts both ways, the article argues: AI-related share sales were about 45% of this year's equity issuance, while Q1 buybacks at Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle fell 64% year over year as roughly $700 billion of capex consumed operating cash flow. SpaceX's June listing raised about $86 billion, its largest IPO ever, with Anthropic and OpenAI behind it; the report says Nvidia is in talks to be a cornerstone investor in Anthropic's IPO for up to $10 billion, and that OpenAI reportedly prefers to push its listing to 2027.

In-depth insight

If lockups, buyback shifts and index inclusion collide in 2027, the risk may shift from outright selling to high correlation among AI assets.

(本文作者为 文武赵,钛媒体经授权发布)

文 | 文武赵

高盛10月9日的周报里,有两个数字长得一模一样。

第一个是供给。2027年,美国市场预计有约1.7万亿美元的股票解禁,可以自由卖出。再加上全年约6000亿美元的新发行,美股公开流通股的净增量,可能是2000年以来最大的一次。

第二个是需求。高盛预计2027年美国企业的回购总额约1.7万亿美元,创历史新高。加上现金并购,企业端对股票的需求超过2万亿美元。

两个1.7万亿放在一起,供需大致相抵。高盛的结论是:供给增加会给估值带来压力,但不至于终结牛市。

#Goldman Sachs#SpaceX#Anthropic#OpenAI#Nvidia#Nasdaq-100#S&P 500#Amazon#Alphabet#Meta#Microsoft#Oracle

Original · 10 min readRead the original
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