Kalshi

Headlines · 2

1. Oct 20
   CME compute futures delayed as GPU rental becomes a tradable contract

   Economic Observer, republished by 36Kr, reports that two compute futures designed by CME Group and Silicon Data on Nvidia H100 and B200 rental prices were originally slated to list on NYMEX on Oct 5 but were delayed after CFTC flagged the product as novel or complex, extending the review to a Nov 9 completion date, with CME marking the initial listing date as to be announced. Meanwhile ICE and Ornn began publishing Ornn Compute Index reference data, Kalshi already offers GPU compute price prediction contracts and forward curves, and Architect and Nodal Exchange are moving on similar products. Interviews with Chinese compute rental firms, cloud vendors, model companies and AIDC park operators found no mature public compute price index domestically, so firms rely on long-term contracts, prepayments and reserved capacity, while Nanhua Futures unit Henghua International signed a memorandum with Silicon Data.

   36氪 人工智能 · 🔥 0
2. Oct 12
   AI forecasting models edge out human superforecasters as startups chase the market

   Several startups are commercializing AI forecasting models that aim to predict stock moves, geopolitics and even pop-chart performance, according to an AFP report. FutureSearch co-founder Dan Schwarz said his models are already competitive with top "superforecasters" and predicted that by 2030 people will view past decision-making as "Stone Age thinking"; two AI models took the top two spots in a competition hosted by forecasting platform Metaculus last month, where humans and non-humans both competed. Preseen co-founder Veniamin Veselovsky said his system turned a $35 stake into $1.9 million in seven months, while colleague Theo Summer stressed that AI forecasting assigns probabilities rather than guaranteeing outcomes, cross-checking linked assumptions such as oil prices and Middle East conflict. Mantic co-founder Toby Shevlane said some clients already use its tools for trading decisions and that leading models now generate their own questions about the future and allocate probabilities across outcomes.

   科技新报 · 🔥 0

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