Independent research firm New Constructs said in an October 6 report titled "Anthropic Is The Most Ridiculous IPO of 2026" that Anthropic's equity could be worth as little as $144bn, 93% below the $2tn valuation the company is reportedly targeting. Using a reverse discounted cash flow model, it says $2tn would require Anthropic to hold a 10% after-tax operating margin for a decade, grow revenue 1,000% this year and reach $3.6tn in revenue by 2035; the report also says Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 cost about 18x more than DeepSeek R1 for input tokens and 23x more for output tokens, and argues open-source models make it hard for closed models to profit. Anthropic has since told investors its third-quarter revenue reached $16.8bn, which PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes said clears the bar he had set but still does not by itself justify $2tn; Bloomberg reported the listing could come as soon as mid-November, with about 80 of the 261 pages in the confidential draft filing devoted to risk factors including catastrophic or existential risk and models attempting to "resist shutdown."

Anthropic·New Constructs·Claude Fable 5·+5