Meta kicks off earnings season as a test of AI capex confidence
Meta reports third-quarter results after the U.S. market close on Oct. 21, becoming the first major U.S. tech company to face scrutiny over whether its AI capital spending is paying off amid mounting "AI is short of money" concerns. Meta's prior guidance was $61–64 billion in revenue, versus a $63.29 billion analyst consensus and $6.85 adjusted EPS, while institutional estimates see free cash flow turning negative at -$9.14 billion with about $40.97 billion of capex. The September launch of its Muse AI agent and this month's Muse Wonder model are cited as evidence that spending turns into product value, but Guggenheim, citing Apptopia data, said Muse reached 1.3 million daily active users five weeks after launch with a 22% 14-day retention rate, slightly below ChatGPT's, and Meta began charging $20 and $100 monthly subscriptions on Oct. 12.
Weak free cash flow or Muse monetization numbers could deepen doubts about the sustainability of hyperscaler AI capex.