Manus's survival paradox: shorter windows and token bills for agent apps
36Kr republished an article from the WeChat account Xiutai analyzing Manus's "dependent innovation": the company does not train foundation models but calls external ones such as Anthropic's Claude and Alibaba's Qwen to build an agent that can open web pages, write code and deliver files. It launched in March 2025, passed $100 million in annualized recurring revenue eight months later, and in October 2026 raised more than $500 million at a valuation of about $4 billion, the article says. It argues that in the LLM era the lead time available to platform-dependent builders keeps shrinking, and that agents sit directly on model companies' main path, so heavier usage means bigger token bills — Ji Yichao's engineering notes put Manus's input-to-output token ratio at about 100 to 1. In October Manus released version 2.0 and Cue, which gives agents email accounts and digital wallets, an attempt to build user relationships that survive a change of underlying model.
The piece frames Manus as a case study in dependent innovation: every model upgrade lifts all integrators at once, making feature leads harder to defend, while per-token pricing ties growth to rising costs.
2009年暑假,刚读完高二的季逸超着手开发一款第三方iOS浏览器,取名“猛犸”。同年11月,他完成第一代产品的最终测试版。2010年12月,猛犸正式在苹果App Store上架销售。季逸超一个人负责设计、编程、测试和运营。
据季逸超在《张小珺商业访谈录》中回忆,从第一代产品到最后一个版本,猛犸浏览器累计为他带来了30多万美元收入。当时,国内不少用户没有国际信用卡,无法购买,他干脆破解了自己的软件,放到国内论坛供人免费使用。
苹果提供操作系统、开发工具和销售渠道,季逸超负责开发产品、寻找用户。一个高中生借助苹果建立的应用生态,把自己的技术变成了一门生意。
十六年后,计算平台已经换了,Manus联合创始人、首席科学家季逸超,与Manus创始人、CEO肖弘一起做出了Manus。公司不训练基础模型,而是调用Anthropic的Claude、阿里的Qwen等外部模型,把这些模型打造成能够打开网页、编写代码、交付文件的智能体。2025年3月上线,八个月后,年化经常性收入突破1亿美元。2026年10月,公司完成超过5亿美元融资,估值约40亿美元。
#Manus#Cue#Wide Research#Monica#Anthropic#Claude#Alibaba#Qwen#Perplexity Computer#Cursor#Benchmark#Peak Labs