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Anthropic's Jack Clark: AI could lift US GDP to $44 trillion by 2030

AI summary

Speaking at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Saturday, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said an internal Anthropic model projects that AI could raise US economic output by nearly 50%, to about $44 trillion by 2030 from roughly $30 trillion today — a figure he conceded "sounds very crazy." He said the projection assumes continued technological progress and argued that international cooperation is needed to write "extraordinary and serious rules" for the technology, warning that policymakers' window to act is narrowing as AI advances faster than humans can follow. Clark, who is Anthropic's head of public benefit, also cast AI as a multiplier for scientific discovery while flagging misuse risks such as bioweapons, and acknowledged job losses in high-exposure areas like call centers and customer service. Reports noted Anthropic is preparing an IPO that could value it at up to $2 trillion; some Chinese tech outlets covering the talk cited unverified benchmark figures, such as 67.7% on Humanity's Last Exam for Claude Opus 5.5 and a 37% score on a Vals RSI index, which should be treated as promotional.

In-depth insight

The figure comes from a company internal model rather than independent research, but it shows how a frontier lab is framing AI as a macroeconomic and policy issue ahead of Anthropic's planned IPO.

IT之家 10 月 18 日消息,Anthropic 联合创始人杰克 · 克拉克(Jack Clark)于当地时间周六表示,人工智能能力的快速进步,将推动各行各业发生更迅猛的变革。该公司内部模型预测,在特定条件下,到 2030 年 AI 能让美国经济产出提升近 50%。

克拉克在曼谷举办的国际货币基金组织与世界银行年会上发言称,需要开展国际合作,为这项具备变革性的技术制定“非同寻常且严格的规则”,政策制定者的行动窗口期正在不断收窄。

克拉克表示,预估美国 GDP 将达到 44 万亿美元(IT之家注:现汇率约合 294.93 万亿元人民币),而当前 GDP 略高于 30 万亿美元(现汇率约合 201.09 万亿元人民币)。“我知道这个数字听起来非常离谱。”但他补充,AI 正在极大加速科学发现。

#Anthropic#Jack Clark#International Monetary Fund#World Bank#Claude Opus 5.5#GPT-6 Astra#Humanity's Last Exam#FrontierMath#Vals

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