In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF warns that the global economy is growing increasingly dependent on capital flows into AI, and that a sharp correction could turn into a global financial shock through leverage and circular investment. The report distinguishes "core" AI firms — such as chipmakers, memory and storage vendors — from other players, and notes hedge funds have raised leveraged positions and margin borrowing, while single stocks now make up 28% of leveraged ETFs. Tracking 14 public transactions since 2023, the IMF found $300 billion invested in "financially weaker" AI companies plus $650 billion in debt corresponded to $1.4 trillion in services and chip-order revenue. Under its scenario, global GDP could fall 0.4%, investment 1.3% and consumption 0.6% by 2028, though bank stress tests suggest lenders would remain "broadly resilient" and hyperscalers now account for 10% of investment-grade bond issuance, up from under 1% in 2024.

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