HBM yield ceiling: TrendForce forecasts 2027 supply tightness, blended ASP up 121%
TrendForce's latest research estimates memory supply will remain tight through 2027 and has revised up its HBM price outlook, projecting blended ASP to rise about 121% year over year, driven by tight overall supply, a higher share of pricier HBM4 shipments and the gradual ramp of HBM4e in the second half of 2027. The article argues that beyond advanced wafer capacity, stacking yield is the key constraint on effective supply: TrendForce data puts current HBM yield at only 50%-60%, with yields typically falling for each new generation, while JPMorgan data shows 58% of 2025-2028 DRAM capacity additions going to HBM, lifting HBM's share of total DRAM capacity from 19% to 31%. Micron has said it will work with TSMC on mass production of next-generation HBM4E in 2027, and per TrendForce, NVIDIA has been reassessing Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration since Q3 2026, weighing HBM4e 12hi/8hi against HBM4 12hi/8hi.
HBM yield, not wafer starts, determines how much memory AI accelerators can actually get, so the 2027 ramp will shape AI server costs and compute expansion.