AI won't 'fail,' but capital may not wait: productivity, inflation and rates
A Chinese-language analysis published on Huxiu AI, by author Xi Chunying, examines Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok's argument that AI cuts long-term rates either way: success brings disinflationary productivity gains, while a bust in AI-linked markets sends haven money into US Treasuries. The author argues the real variable is not whether AI "succeeds" but the lag between massive capital spending and realized productivity, and how the economic surplus AI creates is split among capital, labor and consumers. The piece adds that AI may raise prices for chips, power and land in the build-out phase before any disinflationary effect appears, and cites a question attributed to Federal Reserve chair Warsh about where the surplus ends up.
It frames AI as a macroeconomic variable for inflation and rates rather than a sector story, pointing to the pace of productivity gains and the distribution of the surplus.