Nomura's Lu Ting: AI capex drives new global cycle as US, China lead
Nomura chief China economist Lu Ting argues in Peking University Financial Review that this AI wave is driven mainly by capital spending, with broad productivity gains not yet realized. He cites figures showing US real GDP grew 2.1% in 2025 with AI-related capex contributing 0.8 percentage points, nearly 40% of that growth, while US IT equipment investment rose 28%, computer and peripheral investment 72% and related software investment 14%, with data-center construction spending running at about $40 billion annualized in mid-2025. The article puts top firms' global AI capital spending at $400–500 billion in 2025 and a projected $700 billion in 2026, counts 59 mature commercial models from the US, 35 from China and just 2 from Europe, and flags the gap between such investment and roughly $20 billion in annual generative-AI end-user revenue.
It frames AI capex as a macro growth driver while highlighting the investment-versus-revenue gap, offering a useful lens on how durable this cycle may be.