Roche says AI informs 40% of pipeline decisions, targets 80%
At its late-September Pharma Day investor event, Roche said 40% of pipeline decisions from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 carried a traceable AI or computational contribution, rising to 44% in Q2 2026, split 41% critical, 48% supportive and 10% informational. Genentech gRED head Aviv Regev presented the target-evaluation agent TargetNexus and a "Lab-in-the-Loop" system aiming to be involved in 80% of research portfolio decisions by Q4 this year. Roche says that with nominally flat resources and lead-identification cycles halved, projects entering lead identification rose 155% and internally generated development candidates rose 50% between 2022 and 2025, and one biologics program reached a clinical candidate in 18 months, with first patient dosed this year. Caveats: Roche has not disclosed how it scores AI contributions, 40% times 41% implies only about 16% of decisions were critically AI-influenced, and the Phase III success rise from 65% in 2025 to above 80% cannot be separated from the stricter "The Bar" framework; no approved drug has yet come from the closed loop.
Putting AI contributions into audited business metrics shows model capability, data and validation are becoming the assets contested between drugmakers and AI companies.
9 月底，罗氏（Roche）在伦敦举办了年度投资者活动 Pharma Day，介绍了管线和财报进展：2026 年上半年制药业务销售额增长 6%，III 期临床试验成功率从 2025 年的 65% 升至如今的 80% 以上，到 2030 年，最多会有 20 个新分子实体（NME）具备上市潜力。
亮眼数据之外，真正让这场投资者日有别于往年的，是罗氏旗下基因泰克（Genentech）研究与早期开发部门（gRED）负责人阿维夫·雷格夫（Aviv Regev）的报告《用实验室闭环变革药物研发》。
药企谈论 AI，讲的多是某个项目借助 AI 提速；阿维夫讲的则是将 AI 嵌进整个研发体系，形成可量化考核的成果。
当 AI 的角色从工具逐渐沉淀为研发体系中赖以运转的基础设施，谁来掌握这套系统，也成了药企和 AI 公司共同争夺的焦点。
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