Goldman Sachs sharply raises 2027-2028 global server TAM forecasts
Goldman Sachs' global server team published a report on October 18 raising its 2027E and 2028E global server value TAM by 31% and 45% respectively, with both AI servers and general-purpose servers revised upward. According to 36Kr's account, the report treats simultaneous gains in CSP capital spending, fabless shipments and foundry capacity as confirmation that generative-AI infrastructure investment is in an upcycle. It forecasts rack-scale AI server (NVL72-equivalent) shipments of 63,000/110,000/164,000 units for 2026-28E and 8-GPU AI server shipments of 1.73 million/2.655 million/3.305 million units, alongside a buy list spanning ODMs, optical modules, CCL/PCB, cooling and upstream chips.
The report attributes the TAM upgrade to rack-scale systems and cloud companies' in-house ASICs, projecting about 58% global ASIC penetration by 2028E, giving a concrete quantitative frame for the AI compute supply chain.
高盛全球服务器团队于10月18日发布报告，核心结论只有一个：将全球服务器价值TAM在2027E、2028E分别上调31%、45%，且AI服务器与通用服务器同步上修。
如果只看到“31%、45%”这两个数字，就读浅了这份报告。
它的真正价值在于给出了一套自洽的因果叙事：为什么涨价反而成了利好，为什么产品结构的变化比出货量本身更重要，以及这一切如何最终落到具体供应链标的。
拆开来看，全文论证沿一条四级链条展开：
AI基础设施投资上行（起点）→ 产品组合优化与内存成本上升（两个放大器）→ CSP支出与服务器TAM大幅上修（结果）→ 供应链各环节受益（落地）。
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