10-year Treasury yield nears 5.4% as cracks show in the AI trade
The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5.4% this week, the highest since 2002, while Brent crude hovered above $100 a barrel. The S&P 500 hit a record high, yet only about 30% of its members traded above their 50-day moving average — the weakest participation on a record-setting day in Bloomberg data going back to 1990 — and the Russell 2000 fell for a fifth straight week, about 8.5% below its peak; a junk-bond ETF slid to its lowest since this spring's tariff selloff and the weakest borrowers pay roughly 15%. The piece says Thursday's chip-stock drop showed the AI trade is not invulnerable, cites a Société Générale extreme scenario in which 6% yields and $150 oil could send the S&P 500 down more than 20% next year, and quotes fund manager Jeff Muhlenkamp saying he has nearly eliminated his AI-related holdings.
Rising yields and oil prices feed into AI-linked assets through valuations and financing costs, underscoring how much the AI rally leans on easy liquidity.
美股表面风平浪静，水面之下暗流涌动。十年期美债收益率本周逼近5.4%，创2002年以来新高，布伦特原油徘徊于每桶100美元上方，金融市场正在经历一场被科技巨头光环所遮蔽的广泛撤退。标普500指数本周创下历史新高，但这一纪录背后隐藏着极度脆弱的市场基础——仅约30%的成分股交易于50日均线之上，是彭博自1990......
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美股表面风平浪静，水面之下暗流涌动。十年期美债收益率本周逼近5.4%，创2002年以来新高，布伦特原油徘徊于每桶100美元上方，金融市场正在经历一场被科技巨头光环所遮蔽的广泛撤退。
标普500指数本周创下历史新高，但这一纪录背后隐藏着极度脆弱的市场基础——仅约30%的成分股交易于50日均线之上，是彭博自1990年有数据以来，所有创纪录交易日中市场参与度最低的一次。
#Société Générale#NYSE Group#Russell 2000#S&P 500#Nasdaq 100