Humanoid robot shipments up 4x, but the industry has no profitable model yet
IDC and Frost & Sullivan both published humanoid robot reports in late September, agreeing the market is scaling but disagreeing sharply on the numbers: IDC counted nearly 25,000 units shipped globally in the first half of 2026, up 432.1% year on year, on $740 million in revenue, while Frost & Sullivan counted 36,000 units and $540 million in revenue, implying an average unit price less than half of IDC's. The article says revenue is concentrated in expensive full-size machines — roughly the priciest fifth of shipments took more than three-quarters of revenue — while deployment in actual production work accounted for under 15%, and no company has shown sustained profit: UBTech, the revenue leader, lost RMB 339 million in the half, whereas Unitree is profitable mainly on volume sales of half-size units such as the G1 (over 5,500 units in 2025, about a 34.8% non-recurring net margin). It also cites Mech-Mind founder Shao Tianlan's public criticism of self-dealing data-collection centers and Galbot's denial and police report, and argues that full-size share, commercialization stage and unit prices are more meaningful indicators for the sector.
Fast shipment growth can mask how little of the humanoid robot market reflects real paid demand, making the industry's path to profit harder to judge.