iResearch forecasts 65% hospital penetration for China medical large models by 2028
An iResearch report on China's 2026 medical large-model industry, republished by 36Kr, estimates hospital-side medical large-model penetration in China at about 30% in 2025 and forecasts it will rise to 65% by 2028, with primary-care and public-health penetration climbing from 15% and 10% to 50% and 40%. The report projects compound annual growth above 29% across hospital, primary-care and public-health segments in 2025-2028, and says the share of hospital IT budgets devoted to large models could grow from 5% to 20%. Citing a 2026 American Medical Association survey, it says 81% of surveyed doctors used AI in professional work, up from 35% in 2023, and states that medical large models already cover intelligent triage, record generation, medical imaging analysis and clinical decision support, while deeper multi-agent collaboration remains under exploration and validation.
The report treats hospitals as the main venue for medical large-model deployment and says whether a sustainable business model can be formed will directly affect institutions' long-term purchasing, making the forecast a vendor-side gauge of medical AI commercialization.
引言
根据美国医学会（AMA）2026年的调查，81%的受访医生已经在专业工作中使用AI，而2023年这一比例仅为35%。与此同时，医生平均使用的AI应用场景数量也从1.1个增加至2.3个。AI正在越来越广泛地进入医生的日常工作。
医生对AI的接受程度不断提高，医疗机构的智能化建设也受到更多关注。
艾瑞咨询《2026年中国医疗大模型行业研究报告》预测，到2028年，中国市场医院端的医疗大模型渗透率将达到65%，医疗IT建设预算中大模型相关支出的占比也有望提升至20%。2025-2028年，医院、基层、公卫端的年复合增长率均超29%，医疗大模型在全场景的渗透加速明确。
从医生手中的辅助工具，到医疗机构的系统化应用，AI正在加速融入医疗服务体系。随着应用范围不断扩大，医疗AI正在经历怎样的变化？又将如何进一步影响医疗行业的发展？
AI正在成为医生的日常工具
对于医生而言，AI的价值正在越来越多地体现在具体的工作场景中。