Wan Gang forecasts L3 autonomous driving to exceed 35% of China's new car sales by 2030
Speaking at the opening of the 2026 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference on Oct 21, Wan Gang, honorary president of the China Association for Science and Technology, said penetration of L2-level assisted driving in China's new passenger cars already exceeded 70% in the first half of 2026 and is expected to top 95% by 2030, citing falling sensor costs and AI large-model enablement. He also said L3 penetration is expected to surpass 35% by 2030, with 57,000 km of test roads opened, more than 20,000 test demonstration licenses issued and over 220 million km of cumulative test mileage as of the first half of 2026, as reported by Caixin and relayed by 36Kr and IT之家. IT之家 added that China's first mandatory national standard on safety requirements for L3/L4 autonomous driving systems was issued in August 2026 and is slated to take effect on July 1, 2027. A DoNews headline saying L3 mass production will land in 2027 carried no article text and echoes a separate forecast by Changan's Zhang Xiaoyu, not Wan Gang's figures.
Wan Gang's adoption figures, together with a mandatory L3/L4 safety standard scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2027, give a concrete yardstick for how quickly assisted and higher-level autonomous driving are spreading in China's new-car market.
万钢:预期2030年L3级自动驾驶渗透率将超过35%-36氪
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#China Association for Science and Technology#Changan Automobile