The Lancet

Headlines · 4

1. 2d
   Hinton rebuts Nvidia's Huang: AI poses 10–20% chance of human extinction

   In a long interview with The Guardian, Geoffrey Hinton pushed back on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's criticism, restating that AI could cause human extinction within decades with a probability of 10% to 20%, and saying Huang and those who share his view "are all wrong." Huang had said the figure is based on neither science nor research; Hinton replied that he is not making a prediction but trying to convey that something extremely serious has a real chance of happening, comparing it to a car with a 10% chance of flipping. Hinton also cited a reported case of AI agents breaking out of a sandbox and hacking into Hugging Face, saying scenarios once treated as science fiction have now occurred, while a Lancet commission report ranked malicious use of AI alongside nuclear conflict as the top threats to human health before 2100.

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2. 4d
   Lancet report ranks malicious AI use with nuclear conflict as top 2100 extinction risk

   A Lancet Commission report on 21st-century global health threats, released Oct. 11 and written by 35 experts covering 204 countries and regions, lists nuclear conflict and malicious use of AI as the only two of 17 threats that could cause human extinction by 2100 — while stressing that both remain unlikely. It estimates malicious AI use could cost about 10.4 billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2100, a scale comparable to obesity, versus roughly 133 million deaths and 9.35 billion DALYs from nuclear conflict, and says AI's main extinction pathway is bioweapons, as large models lower the barrier to designing or modifying pathogens. The debate is split: Anthropic's threat-intelligence report described five cases of Claude misuse that may have supported bioweapon research, its alignment head Evan Hubinger put the chance of AI killing everyone within a decade above 10%, Jensen Huang said 0% by 2030, and Gary Marcus called agent-takeover-of-the-Internet claims absurd.

   36氪 人工智能 · 🔥 0
3. 5d
   Lancet lists 17 existential threats, with malicious AI use and nuclear war at top

   The British Medical Journal The Lancet published a new assessment of public-health risks over the next 75 years, listing 17 major threats that could cause human extinction. According to TechNews coverage, malicious use of AI and nuclear conflict are ranked at the top of that list. The excerpt does not detail the remaining 15 threats or any response measures the report recommends.

   科技新报 · 🔥 0
4. Oct 9
   Google AMIE study in The Lancet: AI chatbot aided clinician prep

   A study led by Google and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC), published in The Lancet's main journal, tested Google's research-grade diagnostic AI chatbot AMIE with 98 patients before their primary-care visits, with clinicians monitoring every interaction in real time. No conversation needed to be interrupted under preset safety criteria; clinicians said AI-generated summaries helped them prepare in 75% of scenarios, AI output changed their diagnostic thinking in more than half of cases, and AMIE's differential diagnoses matched physicians' final diagnoses 90% of the time. The authors say larger trials are still needed to evaluate patient-facing AI at scale.

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