Metaculus

Headlines · 1

1. Oct 12
   AI forecasting models edge out human superforecasters as startups chase the market

   Several startups are commercializing AI forecasting models that aim to predict stock moves, geopolitics and even pop-chart performance, according to an AFP report. FutureSearch co-founder Dan Schwarz said his models are already competitive with top "superforecasters" and predicted that by 2030 people will view past decision-making as "Stone Age thinking"; two AI models took the top two spots in a competition hosted by forecasting platform Metaculus last month, where humans and non-humans both competed. Preseen co-founder Veniamin Veselovsky said his system turned a $35 stake into $1.9 million in seven months, while colleague Theo Summer stressed that AI forecasting assigns probabilities rather than guaranteeing outcomes, cross-checking linked assumptions such as oil prices and Middle East conflict. Mantic co-founder Toby Shevlane said some clients already use its tools for trading decisions and that leading models now generate their own questions about the future and allocate probabilities across outcomes.

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