Aviv Regev

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   Roche says AI informs 40% of pipeline decisions, targets 80%

   At its late-September Pharma Day investor event, Roche said 40% of pipeline decisions from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 carried a traceable AI or computational contribution, rising to 44% in Q2 2026, split 41% critical, 48% supportive and 10% informational. Genentech gRED head Aviv Regev presented the target-evaluation agent TargetNexus and a "Lab-in-the-Loop" system aiming to be involved in 80% of research portfolio decisions by Q4 this year. Roche says that with nominally flat resources and lead-identification cycles halved, projects entering lead identification rose 155% and internally generated development candidates rose 50% between 2022 and 2025, and one biologics program reached a clinical candidate in 18 months, with first patient dosed this year. Caveats: Roche has not disclosed how it scores AI contributions, 40% times 41% implies only about 16% of decisions were critically AI-influenced, and the Phase III success rise from 65% in 2025 to above 80% cannot be separated from the stricter "The Bar" framework; no approved drug has yet come from the closed loop.

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