Zhipu's GLM release cycle is turning Chinese LLM makers into 'product-cycle stocks'
An analysis republished by 36Kr (originally from Silicon-Based Observation Pro) argues Chinese large-model companies are increasingly priced like carmakers — 'product-cycle stocks' whose valuations reset with every model release. It cites Zhipu: shares listed at HK$116.2 (about HK$51.8bn market value), peaked at HK$1.07tn on June 22, and fell to HK$696 and roughly HK$324.1bn by October 7, down 76.6% from the high, even as API calls and ARR kept growing. Three of four major model launches this year lifted the stock on the day (average +12.3%), including GLM-5 on February 12 (+28.68%, then +56.22% over five sessions) and open-sourced GLM-5.2 on June 17 (+12.62%); GLM-5.3 on August 14 fell 3.57% after a 40% pre-release run-up.
The piece argues that frontier-model leads now decay in months, so release cadence — and rivals' releases — have become key drivers of how these companies are valued.