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Tesla-SpaceX merger talk: Musk's AI, compute and control consolidation

AI summary

An analysis published by TMTPost says that at Tesla's Q2 2026 earnings call a Wells Fargo analyst asked whether Tesla and SpaceX had merger value, and Musk replied that cooperation and business overlap between the two were growing but that any deal would need the right timing and process. The piece argues the likely structure would be SpaceX issuing stock to absorb Tesla: it puts SpaceX's market value at about $2.15 trillion and Tesla's at about $1.49 trillion as of Oct 12, 2026, notes SpaceX's February stock-swap acquisition of xAI and its June IPO at $135 per share (roughly $1.77 trillion valuation, raising up to $75 billion), and says Musk controls about 85% of votes through super-voting B shares. It also describes the jointly discussed Terafab plan to build manufacturing capacity for one terawatt of AI compute a year, and cites Tesla's Q2 revenue of $28.24 billion, a 1.4% operating margin and negative $10.92 billion free cash flow. The merger itself remains speculative, with the author pointing to a 2027–2028 window.

In-depth insight

If such a stock-swap merger happened, it would put chips, energy, models, satellites and devices under one listed entity, potentially reshaping competition in AI infrastructure and compute supply chains.

(本文作者为 文武赵,钛媒体经授权发布)

文 | 文武赵

2026年7月,富国银行分析师在特斯拉二季度业绩会上直接询问,两家公司未来是否存在合并价值。马斯克没有回避,只说双方的合作与业务重叠正在增加,讨论这件事需要合适的时间和程序。

一个月后,他在SpaceX上市后的首次业绩会上再次留下口子,表示相关交易必须通过适当程序完成。SpaceX总裁格温·肖特韦尔此前也没有排除这一可能。

如果可行,交易的方向大概是,SpaceX作为收购方,以发行股票的方式吸收特斯拉。特斯拉不会拿现金购买SpaceX,双方平级合并的概率也很低。

马斯克推动这笔交易,表面上讲的是人工智能、机器人、卫星通信和能源协同,底层动力来自三件事:把分散在不同公司的技术重新装进一个资本主体;让SpaceX的高估值成为收购货币;把特斯拉放进马斯克拥有绝对投票权的公司。

#Tesla#SpaceX#xAI#Starlink#Terafab#Optimus#Starship#Starshield#X#Neuralink#FSD#Megapack

Original · 13 min readRead the original
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