IDC reports 22% global smartphone shipment decline amid rising memory costs
IDC reported that global smartphone shipments fell 22% year over year in Q3 2026, while Counterpoint and Omdia estimated declines of about 20%. IDC attributed part of the pressure to AI-related demand raising storage-chip prices, which squeezed vendor margins and led some manufacturers to raise prices, reduce specifications or discontinue entry-level models. TMTPost noted that channel shipments are not the same as consumer purchases, citing Counterpoint data that Chinese smartphone sell-through fell 13% during the four-week 618 shopping period.
The reports link AI-driven storage demand and rising memory costs to pressure on smartphone pricing, margins and supply decisions, while also showing that shipment declines should not be treated as direct measures of consumer sales.
（本文作者为 防冷涂的蜡，钛媒体经授权发布）
文 | 防冷涂的蜡
2026年第三季度，全球智能手机市场交出了一份难看的成绩单。Counterpoint公布的报告显示，全球智能手机出货量同比下降约20%，部分主流安卓品牌的跌幅更加明显。
市场很快找到了一条解释路径：AI数据中心抢购存储芯片，芯片供应商把更多产能留给利润更高的服务器，手机厂商的采购成本跟着上升。手机变贵，促销减少，消费者推迟购买，最终反映在销量上。手机厂商也开始频繁谈论存储成本压力。
一边是不断涨价的内存，一边是突然下跌的手机出货量，两件事看起来严丝合缝。可手机行业究竟发生了什么？要回答这个问题，恐怕得先弄清楚新闻中那个令人吃惊的20%，到底是怎么来的。
手机销量暴跌20%，到底是谁不买了？
假设一家手机厂商去年第三季度往经销商仓库送了100万部手机，今年只送了80万部。按照行业统计，出货量下降20%。可是，去年送过去的手机有没有卖完、今年仓库里还压着多少货，这个数字都不会告诉我们。