SemiAnalysis: Anthropic subscriptions offer ~5x OpenAI's API-equivalent value
SemiAnalysis estimates that at the mid-tier model level — Claude Opus 5.5 versus GPT-6.1 Sol — Anthropic subscriptions deliver roughly 5x the API-equivalent value of OpenAI's, while top-tier limits are broadly similar across GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1. It estimates Anthropic's subscriptions are only ~10% of revenue but consume over 40% of inference compute, cutting blended revenue per MW by about $36M. OpenAI last week halved the API-equivalent value of its $200 tier and added a $500 tier that offers only 21% more Astra usage than the old $200 plan, with pre-cut $200 plans keeping old limits until October 29; SemiAnalysis also launched a subscriptions dashboard tracking OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, SpaceXAI, Cursor, Cognition, Z.ai, MiniMax and Moonshot.
Subscriptions are how most consumers and small businesses pay for AI, so shifting limits and credit costs quietly reshape lab economics and user choices.
Subscription plans are still the primary way consumers and small businesses pay for AI. These plans are highly subsidized—as we previously explained in June—but can still make economic sense as powerful customer acquisition and marketing tools. For example, the goodwill engendered by OpenAI’s generous resets is partially responsible for the recent surge in Codex adoption and has forced Anthropic to repeatedly walk back planned subscription nerfs to avoid getting clobbered in the court of public opinion.
Furthermore, because subscription plans are so heavily subsidized, they can also have a large impact on margins and revenue per MW despite only being a small portion of total revenue. Consider the following rough numbers for Anthropic.
Despite being just 10% of overall revenue, subscriptions can take up over 40% of inference compute and lower blended revenue per MW by ~$36M. Subscriptions are even more important for OpenAI, as they make up a larger portion of their total revenue. For specific numbers, see our Tokenomics Model.
#Anthropic#OpenAI#SemiAnalysis#Claude Opus 5.5#GPT-6.1 Sol#GPT-6 Astra#Fable 5.1#Meta#Cursor#Cognition#MiniMax#Moonshot