Google DeepMind engineer: AI writes 75% of code, but self-improvement remains far off
Google DeepMind engineer Haydn Belfield said more than 75% of Google's production code is written by AI, yet about 88% of code changes still require human oversight or review, with fully AI-delegated changes rising from 7.5% to 11.9%. In 1,389 internal Argon agent runs, unsupervised success fell sharply as task complexity rose; on RE-Bench, which contains 74 real machine-learning engineering tasks, Argon solved about half, versus 27% for Gemini 3.7 Flash. The team built a General Capability Index spanning 123 models and 92 benchmarks, finding Gemini capabilities improving about 0.1 GCI point per month with no statistically significant acceleration, and attributed Gemini 4 Argon's slightly above-trend result mainly to more compute and organizational investment rather than AI-driven acceleration. Separately, more than 20 researchers including Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio and OpenAI's Jakub Pachocki warned in a paper that automating AI R&D could trigger an intelligence explosion compressing years of progress into months.
The figures are a first-hand internal measurement from a frontier lab: heavy AI involvement in coding but little fully delegated work, which Google cites as evidence that AI-driven research acceleration is not yet measurable.
近日,谷歌DeepMind的工程师海顿·贝尔菲尔德对外披露了一组数据:谷歌内部超过75%的生产代码由AI编写。这听起来像是AI已经深度介入研发工作。
但贝尔菲尔德同时给出了另一组数字:约88%的代码变更仍然需要人工监督或审查,每一次变更在提交前都必须经过人工审核。完全委托给AI的代码变更比例从7.5%上升到了11.9%。
75%和11.9%之间的差距,就是当下AI自我改进能力的真实边界。
越复杂的任务,AI越难独立完成
贝尔菲尔德披露的数据来自谷歌内部的实际运营。据他介绍,谷歌DeepMind并未发现AI本身驱动的AI研究出现可衡量的加速。自动化程度确实在显著提高,但距离“AI自己改进自己”仍有相当距离。
这个判断在谷歌内部的基准测试中得到了验证。在1389次Argon内部智能体运行测试中,随着任务复杂性的增加,无人干预的成功率急剧下降。任务越复杂、越耗时,AI就越难独立完成。
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