McKinsey: AI may force 11 million US workers to change occupations by 2035
A new McKinsey Global Institute report estimates that by 2035 AI and automation could reduce demand for roughly 36 million US jobs while creating about 41 million roles elsewhere, leaving a possible net gain in employment. It warns that about 11 million US workers—some 7% of the current workforce, within a range of 6 million to 16 million—may need to switch occupations entirely, equal in the baseline scenario to about 770,000 full career changes a year, roughly 3.6 times the historical average. The hardest-hit areas are office and administrative support, retail and transportation, mostly lower-wage work; low-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than high-wage workers to need an occupational change, about 85% of growing roles require some credential or license, and around 76% cannot be done remotely.
The report shifts the AI-jobs debate from whether roles disappear to whether workers can move across industries, skills and locations, a direct input for corporate reskilling and hiring plans and for policy design.
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麥肯錫全球研究院最新報告指出，人工智慧與自動化雖然可能在未來十年為美國帶來更多新職缺，但真正的難題不在於工作消失，而是勞工能否順利轉型新職位。報告估計，到 2035 年，AI 與自動化將使美國約 3,600 萬個職位需求下降，同時其他領域創造約 4,100 萬個職缺，整體看來仍可能是淨增就業。
研究也警告，約1,100萬名美國勞工、相當於現有勞動力7%，可能需要完全轉換職業，範圍約落在600萬至1,600萬人。麥肯錫指出，這類轉職多半不是同產業調整，而是橫跨至全新領域，例如從零售轉向醫療照護。以基準情境推算，未來每年約77萬人需完全轉換跑道，約歷史平均的3.6倍。