Minutes from the Fed's September meeting show officials increasingly leaning toward the view that AI infrastructure buildout, rather than higher tariffs, is the main force keeping core goods prices rising; the minutes note the price impact of AI construction appears to be growing while tariff effects are fading. Fed staff raised their inflation forecasts for 2026 through 2028 and now expect inflation to return to the 2% target only in 2029, a year later than their July projection. Officials unanimously supported raising the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12-0 vote, with most saying another hike by year-end could be appropriate.

Federal Reserve