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Storm Outage Risk Forecast

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Headlines · 1

  1. Developer reports XGBoost forecasts county power outages two hours ahead

    A developer built an hourly XGBoost system for 216 counties in Missouri and Illinois that estimates the probability of at least 5% of a county’s customers newly losing power during a six-hour window beginning two hours ahead. The model uses issued HRRR storm forecasts, county-specific information, current outages and neighboring-county data. It was trained on 2020–2024 and tested on 2025. The developer reported a PR-AUC of 0.094, compared with 0.039 for a rate-table baseline using National Weather Service warnings and Storm Prediction Center Day 1 outlooks. At equal alert volume, the developer reported catching 30% of new outages versus 17%, with 15% precision versus 11%. The base rate was 0.5% of county-hours. An early transfer test reportedly caught 31% versus 19% in Iowa, Indiana and Michigan.

    r/MachineLearning · 🔥 2

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